Excellent Compilation

"Hindsight bias ;"
"EARTHQUAKES share some characteristics with financial markets. Both follow a power law.;"
"Hedonic treadmill;"
"opportunity-cost principle in economics;"
Gordon's dividend model;preference reversal
"recognition heuristics"
Black and Scholes (B&S) model
Game theory studies how we take decisions to maximise our benefits (payoffs).
"When alpha becomes beta "
"Physics of finance "
"The theory of allocation of time".

This are some of the phrases from the articles at Business Line. They are short, crisp and educative. Some with science background will also enjoy.
The link http://www.blonnet.com/iw/2005/03/20/stories/2005032000
641300.htm

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/cgi-bin/bl2005.pl?mainclass=97&subclass=726

When to sell ?

If you have been an investor since many years, chances are you would have made lot of money if u would have held on to your good stocks. The question arises , when to sell. Well it is not easy unless u had predecided goals for yourself. There are many good advisors telling different strategies, but I think the following are worth considering.
1) If you need money , then sell.
2) If your asset allocation was pre decided, sell equities to balance your portfolio. Increase your exposure to gold, debts etc.
The second strategy is best , because it minimises your risk and maximises your returns in numerous ways.

Basics in Investing

6 years back I had learnt my basics by losing money and also from the Sharekhan site. I revisit the site and give u one of the link to their article. The whole series is excellent piece to read. It is another matter, regarding applying it. I also admire articles written by Sanjiv Pandiya in Valueresearch. Check them out

http://www.sharekhan.com/KnowledgeCentre/ChapterArticle.aspx?ArticleID=f8a9c502-0e0b-431f-9df8-144fb631fb40


http://www.valueresearchonline.com/story/storyview.asp?str=8662


http://www.valueresearchonline.com/story/storyview.asp?str=8703

Proven Wrong

For one who believes that the fudamentals are important, I acknowledge that even though the ego is hurt , it is good to be proven wrong about the sensex . This illustrates the point that you cannot time the market and predict the highs and lows of it. Equities are for long term. If you can keep your money locked for more than 9 years, then please go ahead and invest today. Also select industry leaders and stick to companies you know and understand.

NEw HIGHS

Well, the sensex is hitting new highs and my prediction that the markets will come down after budget has been proven wrong ! Or is there any merit in my suggesting that the markets will correct in near term. I still believe that from now till July the market will see decline in its level.
If you are a long term investor and u should always be one if u are investing in stocks, u can spread your purchases over next few months.
Regarding the basics which I had mentioned in the previous blog, I provide a link for information regarding asset allocation.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/1420680.cms

Basics

Doctors have a common quote amongst them that if the 'basics' are right then a person can tackle any situation and has answers for most of the problems.
I took upon writing this blog with the assumption that anybody who comes across it, is well versed with economics and personal finance. Honestly ? No.
Most of them want short cuts. Very few are ready to invest time and money to understand how to grow their money. People spend hours trying to buy their clothes or any other routine things, bargaining for 50-100Rs, but when it comes to investments they want expert advice and they will rely on any 'expert advice'. It only shows the lack of discipline and the inability to see the bigger picture. Most of my friends dont have any idea about the power of compunding, the simplest fundamental truth of all. Most of them have never heard of "Term insurance" plan and when I explain they think it is a big loss if u choose a term insurance plan. For majority of the people inspite of the "Bull run", stock market is a gambling den and mutual funds are some align concepts. I dont blame my friends. I was luck enough to have been introduced to economics. If you are someone u has not been able to follow what I have written so far, u can always contact me or leave a comment here. I shortly plan to upload all the 'basic ' information I have and reading which I have gained a fair knowledge regarding managing money. U can definitely benefit from it.
Let me make a disclaimer, I am a Doctor specialising in Cancer and have an avid interest in economics. I believe in Evidence Based Medicine, infact the Management guys have borrowed the concept and have started something called 'Evidence Based Management'. There are no short cuts to creating wealth.

PHILANTHROPY

Well it is sunday and we need a different theme to relax. We all want to make money. let us assume that we are all super-rich, that is beyond what we can count, then what will we do with that money. It is not easy to answer because being super rich, u have all the luxuries and all the gadgets. So, let us see what way the rich people have spent their money and what the society thinks about it.
Philanthropy , embodied by many great people is an universal way in which the rich have partly used their money.
Examples include past giants like Andrew Carnegie, John D. Rockefeller, Joseph Rowntree and William Wilberforce, Tatas.
Presently Bill Gates hogs the limelight for the same reason.

Britain's Dame Anita Roddick, founder of the Body Shop, and Arpad Busson, a colourful French hedge-fund boss. India's new wealthy, such as Azim Premji and Nandan Nilekani, two Bangalore technology-firm bosses, are also becoming keen philanthropists. If I have ighnited your interest in this area, u can check out the following links.

1. http://www.economist.com/surveys/displaystory.cfm?story_id=5517605
2. http://www.fordfound.org/news/view_news_detail.cfm?news_index=118
3. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philanthropists
4. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Search?search=indian+philanthropists&fulltext=Search
5. http://www.answers.com/topic/philanthropist-1?method=22

To create wealth to distribute requires effort and discipline. So what to buy and what to sell, to make money ?

Patience is required. Hold cash for some time if u can. Buying opportunities are there but let us take some deep breaths before we resume to buy and sell.

Have GUTS

There is always new information coming into the market. Markets normally over react to the news. Remember the May of 2004 when the markets had tanked by around 600 points to 4500 level and there were no buyers. Those who did buy on that day must be laughing all the way to the bank now.

Last week HCL Infosystems saw a great fall in its share price because it lost its monopoly distribution of Nokia gadgets, yes HCL is a distributor for many companies including NOKIA TOSHIBA etc. It is a bad news for the company, but what price is correct for HCL Infosystem stock will be slowly determined. If u look at the purchases by few leading mutual funds in last few months, they had purchased HCL heavily , while the promoters themselves have sold the stock. Behind all this background it is very difficult to suggest whether to buy or sell this stock.
I am a great fan of Shiv Nadar and also believe if the people behind the company are good , the stock will ultimately perform well. If the budget is going to be favorable to the hardware industry , there r many rumours. My suggestion , go ahead, purchase HCL as well as Zenith computers.
Ranbaxy is another company with lot of bad news floating around. So u can purchase Ranbaxy on declines.
Overall I reiterate the markets will fall after the budget. I am sticking my neck out.

In international market sell the tobacco companies. Read below

Sell Tobacco companies

Tobacco companies especially BAT that is British American Tobacco and Imperial Tobacco Limited are going to have a tough time. There may be enough evidence to say that they have wilfully caused public harm. Sell both the stocks.

Bearish View

Yesterday I mentioned about genset companies . The fact of the matter is that there is acute shortage of electricity in Maharashtra. Ofcourse Maharashtra is not the whole of India, but Mumbai ,the commercial hub, is in Maharashtra. The worrying thing is that power cuts are affecting Mumbai also, u may ask why it should not.
Look at it the other way, Mumbai contributes around 40 % of direct tax revenue. If there is power shortage, will business in Mumbai be not affected. My common sense approach tells me that the situation is grim and sooner or later the shortage of electricity will reflect somewhere or the other.
Risks come in various sizes and shapes. But with each risk there is an opportunity also.
The next three quarter results will be interesting to watch, especially those companies which are based in Mumbai and Maharashtra.

Daily Business

Investing money cannot be a daily business. If you buy daily and sell daily then u r a gambler, relying more on luck. Also u r spoiling ur health and neglecting your own true work. Inspite of all this realization markets make u crazy at times. No amount of cautious words can bring sanity. Being a contrararian can make u seem foolish.
Evaluating risk is not possible by everbody. Infact even the insurance industry fails to do it often. The 'bird flu' risk and its impact cannot be easily figured into. Analysts suggest purchasing cipla since it produces Tamiflu the drug which is used to control bird flu.
Stock market in India is awaiting the budget. To be honest not really. The course of the sensex may be up or down but there is money always to be made. What is required is discipline , which is hard to come by. Also as i previously mentioned "the invisible hand " is always at work. Mere mortals cannot fathom it easily.
What can be our daily business? Strenghtening one's fundamentals. Keep reading and exploring.
A magazine recommends KEC international as a good stock and u find that in the same month two leading mutual funds have dumped it. Another fund dumped it belatedly yesterday. Any body working at KEC can probably answer this.
By the way one of my uncle working in a genset marketing company visited me. The kind of power shortage had brought him to Mumbai. Cummins are leading players in this area and they are not able to deliver gensets for their clients as they are overbooked.
On parting note for today, Satyam is poised for a good year. U can invest and stay invested.

Todays

Well for some reason i recommend SBI, Bnk of Baroda and Teledata system.
The last recommendation is pure risk , the other two are solid till u discover.

follow

See valueresearchindia.com , www.economictimes.com , the former for information regarding mutual funds and the latter has information on innumerable companies.

To take stock or not

I have an ongoing affair with the stock market. I am fascinated by the " The Invisible Hand".
There is no short cut to make money, it is a science as well as a art. Timing is very important. Using one's common sense is even more important.
My recommendations are based on combination of fundamentals, valuation and basically the simple reading of classifieds, that job recruitments.The market in India is right now very hot. I dont have any short term recommendations. If u r interested in holding for some period than u can consider the following recommendations.
Rolta at 200 Rs.
NTPC at 100-110 Rs.
Ranbaxy at 400 Rs.......... it is in an interesting phase.
These are for people already in the market. For new entrants my recommendation is to try mutual fund route.
Also have ur goals and objectives clear. U will get plenty of advice regarding this on many websites.
My personal recommendation is if u have 100 Rs to invest today, u should do it systemically and u should diversify. By diversification I mean 70-80% in equities and 10 % in gold and rest in whatever u like. The equities can comprise mutual fund or if direct exposure is sought I advice proper study by each individual investor. Dont buy becos somebody else asks u to buy. Buy the stories u know, the business which u understand and also the business which u dont understand, bcos then only u will be able to create wealth.
When selecting ur life partner, or school for ur son , or ur doctor , what efforts u take, please take the same effort when investing.

Creating Wealth

Well i discovered that i can have multiple blog sites depending on my varied interests, so i decided to create one for my economic activities. I am Cancer Speciaslist but interested in economic activities since my MBBS days. I strongly believe that science requires efficient business models to sustain itself.
I have read parts of Adam Smith's Wealth of Nations and also Ayn Rands Atlas Shrugged.

Also a great scientist Rudolph Virchow has said" The improvement of medicine may eventually prolong human life , but the improvement in social conditions can achieve this results more rapidly and more successfully.
Hope this blog brings out the best in me and others to create better human conditions by creating wealth.